Topeka Economic Outlook
The Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University has compiled data to provide forecasts on the economic outlook for Topeka. For a more comprehensive look at Kansas economic data, visit kansaseconomy.org.
TOPEKA’S ROAD TO RECOVERY
The Topeka metropolitan area had a smaller relative impact from the pandemic than the other large markets within the state. After the reopening of the market, the region added 1,300 jobs but has yet recovered to its pre-COVID levels.
TOPEKA’S LABOR MARKET MYSTERY
Employment at firms within the Topeka market remains 3.9 percent below January 2020, accounting for 4,400 jobs. Household employment, however, exceeded its previous peak in July of 2021. Although there could be some technical measurement errors, the gap between the two surveys represents a drastic labor shift of households leaving multiple temporary jobs for full-time benefited positions.
LABOR MARKET WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
The labor market within the Topeka metropolitan area is expected to heat up over the next twelve months. The pressure within the labor market stems from increased global demand while the labor force has peaked. As a result, unemployment rates will slowly decline over the next two years as firms hire and train from the existing 4,500 unemployed workers.
RETAIL CONSUMPTION WILL SHIFT
Big box retail stores within the Topeka market were positioned well during the pandemic. As the markets improve, consumer demand will spill over into smaller specialty retail stores and the leisure and hospitality sectors. In addition, total personal income is expected to remain strong over the next two years as firms battle out the tight labor market with a wage war.
TOPEKA IS POSITIONED FOR STRONG GROWTH IN 2022
Food manufacturing and the government sector provided economic resilience to the Topeka metropolitan area, and both will help lead to a higher than normal growth in 2022. The market area is expected to add over 850 jobs in 2022, with a growth rate of 0.8 percent. In addition, leisure and hospitality, which includes restaurants, hotels and entertainment, is expected to see strong growth from changing consumer preferences.
