Topeka Economic Outlook
The Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University has compiled data to provide forecasts on the economic outlook for Topeka. For a more comprehensive look at Kansas economic data, visit kansaseconomy.org.
TOPEKA LOST FEWER JOBS THAN THE OTHER METROPOLITAN AREA
COVID-19 devastated hard-hit sectors like restaurants, entertainment and small retailers.
Larger metropolitan areas in Kansas lost more jobs than rural parts of the state, as they have a higher concentration of the hard-hit sectors.
The concentration of government jobs likely shielded the regional economy from the lost wages experienced in both Kansas City and Wichita.
A YEAR OF RECOVERY
The Topeka market added the most jobs between 2014 and 2017.
In 2021, the Topeka economy is expected to regain some of the employment lost during COVID-19.
By the end of 2021, Topeka will likely reach the same level of employment within the region it had in 2011.
SECOND QUARTER OF 2021 IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST
Pent-up demand and stimulus checks should fuel growth in the second quarter of 2021 in Kansas and the Topeka economies.
Topeka is expected to add 763 jobs in 2021 with an annualized growth rate of 0.7 percent, which is strong growth for this region.
The expected employment growth within the Topeka metropolitan area will be driven by reopening the market. Although some sectors will create new positions, most of the increase will likely be refilling positions due to downsizing during COVID-19.
THE SERVICE SECTOR WILL LIKELY LEAD THE GROWTH IN 2021
The production sector includes manufacturing, mining and construction. This sector is expected to add 125 jobs over the next year, accounting for one percent growth.
Trade, transportation and utilities will likely decline slightly over the next year, as overall employment is still below its pre-COVID levels.
The service sector accounts for just under fifty percent of all employment within the Topeka market. Services will likely grow by 1.8 percent in 2020.
Government is expected to decline by 316 jobs, as the overall economy remains smaller than it was at the beginning of 2020.
FOOD MANUFACTURING AND BUSINESS SERVICES GREW DURING THE PANDEMIC
Food manufacturing was a bright spot within both Topeka and Kansas economies. The Topeka economy added 100 jobs over the previous twelve-month period.
Professional and business services ended 2020 with a net growth of 0.8 percent, which was likely due to outsourcing of services as a cost reduction strategy for employers within the area.
Leisure and hospitality, which is primarily food service and entertainment, declined by 10.3 percent with a total loss of 900 jobs in 2020.
RETAIL SALES INCREASED DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE YEAR
Topeka has the most significant increase in the inflation-adjusted taxable retail sales with a cumulative growth of 4.1 percent between January and October.
Growth in retail was fueled by both savings during the pandemic and from the stimulus checks.
Data is provided by Jeremy Hill, director for the Center for Economic Development and Business Research at the W. Frank Barton School of Business.
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